Calcul intensif pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité en utilisant une approche d'Ingénierie Dirigée par les Modèles : application à la vulnérabilité des prairies au changement climatique sous contraintes de plans d'expériences

Abstract : Vulnerability is the degree to which human or environmental systems are likely toexperience harm due to a perturbation or a stress. In the last years, it has become a centralfocus of the global change (including climate change). Assessing the vulnerability of agroecosystemsto climate change is one of the priority areas of the French National Institute ofAgronomic Research (INRA). The climate change literature contains many explanations ofvulnerability, stemming from the notion of sensitivity to more complex ideas, yet takinginto account the exposure history of the system up to residual impacts of climate changeafter adaptation. In the framework of the activities of the INRA’s Grassland EcosystemResearch Unit (UREP) of Clermont-Ferrand, interest is on vulnerability of grassland andlivestock systems against the risk of reduced milk and forage production, and against theproblem of increased greenhouse gas emissions that comes with the production ofgrassland ecosystem services.Vulnerability assessment has similarities with sensitivity analysis and is based onsimulations of the target system, forced to respond to the changes of stress factors. Due tothe cascade of uncertainties in climate change impacts assessment, a large number ofsimulations are necessary. In this context, the need to reduce user waiting time calls for theconception of an appropriate experimental plan, as well as the use of high performancecomputing. Moreover, vulnerability assessment may consist of many steps, such asdesigning the experiment (choice of agro-ecological model, variables of interest, scenarios,reference thresholds, parameters distribution …), designing of the experimental plans,regressing response surfaces, computing metrics (e.g. vulnerability indices) and optimizingvulnerability (through designing and evaluating adaptation measures). To our knowledge,no specific tool has been built or validated, in order to facilitate the implementation ofmost of these tasks. Thus, the goal of this thesis was to propose a generic method toperform a comprehensive vulnerability analysis to climate change. The work in this thesishas begun with a review of the concept of vulnerability and the proposal of a genericapproach, based on a critical synthesis of the state of the art. Then, with a Model DrivenEngineering approach, we have developed a computer tool for vulnerability analysis. Thistool, implemented with the modelling framework Eclipse Modeling Framework (EMF) isgeneric, modular and allows the distribution and interpretation of simulation results.Finally, application examples of climate change vulnerability assessment were achievedwith the previously proposed solutions. This approach relied, in particular, on the use ofthe grassland ecosystem biogeochemical model PaSim ([Riedo et al., 1998], [Vuichard2007a], [Graux 2011]).
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Romain Lardy. Calcul intensif pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité en utilisant une approche d'Ingénierie Dirigée par les Modèles : application à la vulnérabilité des prairies au changement climatique sous contraintes de plans d'expériences. Ingénierie assistée par ordinateur. Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2013. Français. ⟨NNT : 2013CLF22352⟩. ⟨tel-01913555⟩

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